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COVID-19: STOCK MARKET REACTIONS TO THE SHOCK AND THE
STIMULUS

Maretno Agus Harjoto, Fabrizio Rossi &John K.
Paglia

Applied Economics Letters

Published online: 17 Jun 2020

(https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13504851.2020.1781767) I. Introduction

The pandemic emergency derived from the novel
coronavirus (COVID-19) has affected many countries around the world. After the
first case was registered in Wuhan City in the Hubei province of China in
December 2019, the emergency hit major European countries and the US. Based on
the transmission speed of the virus, the World Health Organization (WHO)
officially declared the COVID-19 outbreak as a global pandemic on 11 March
2020. The WHO announcement has caused terrible crashes in the global stock
markets (BBC News 2020).

As this article was written, the WHO Situation Report
#129 on 28 May 2020 indicated that there were globally 5,593,631 confirmed
cases and 353,334 deaths (WHO 2020). COVID-19 has affected both developed and emerging
countries and is considered a pandemic across 215 countries and territories.

In attempts to curb the spread, travel restrictions,
lockdowns, shelter-in-place orders and social distancing measures adopted by
many countries to reduce the contagions by COVID-19 have created sudden and massive
disruptions in the flow of goods and services. These disruptions have brought
economic disasters across countries because the disease has adversely impacted
the production and supply chains in China, Europe, Japan and the US, namely,
arguably the most important economies in the world. Therefore, COVID-19 has
created massive global economic and financial shockwaves that adversely
affected the financial markets, both in the developed and the emerging
countries.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that
the world Gross Domestic Product is expected to be −3% in 2020, which is worse
than the 2008–2009 financial crisis (IMF 2020). Around the globe, the governments have made
important economic, fiscal and monetary decisions to dampen the adverse impact
of COVID-19 on their capital markets. Specifically, on 9 April 2020, the US
Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) announced a massive 2.3 USD trillion lending program
primarily to help small and medium-sized businesses keep their workers on
payrolls. Unlike large companies, small and medium-sized businesses have
relatively thin margins, insufficient capital cushions and uncertain access to
capital to weather significant and sustained economic shocks. Accordingly, the
size and immediacy of this massive monetary policy action exceeded previous
amounts of quantitative easing (QE), including the recent 2007 crisis.

Recent studies have examined
the effects of COVID-19 both at macro and firm levels in a single country (e.g.
Ramelli and Wagner 2020; Wang, Fang, and Gao 2020). However, to the best of our
knowledge, none have examined the global equity market reactions to COVID-19
using an event study with an emphasis on the differential reactions between
large and small businesses. Considering the speed of the COVID-19 spread and
the speed of the government responses