Магистерский диплом (ВКР) на тему Торгово-экономическое взаимодействие Китая и России в сфере поставок природного газа

Содержание:

INTRODUCTION 3

CHAPTER 1. FEATURES OF INTERACTION IN THE SPHERE OF NATURAL GAS SUPPLY 7

1.1. General state of the natural resources market 7

1.2. Energy consumption and its impact on the global economy 15

CHAPTER 2. SPECIFICS OF INTERACTION BETWEEN RUSSIA AND PRC ON THE NATURAL GAS MARKET 30

2.1. Russian natural gas market and main partners in 2022 30

2.2. The specifics of the natural gas market in China 42

2.3. Analysis of natural gas supplies from Russia to China 63

2.4. Prospects for cooperation against the backdrop of the Ukrainian crisis 71

CONCLUSION 82

BIBLIOGRAPHY 84

Введение:

Natural gas has become the second most consumed energy resource in the world, and its importance in the structure of consumption of primary energy resources in most countries is constantly growing. In China, on the one hand, with the growth of economic development, the consumption of energy resources, including natural gas, has increased. Moreover, in the face of ever-growing demand for supplying resources to consumers in China and the Russian Federation, the gap between demand and supply for natural gas in the country will only increase in the future. On the other hand, Russia today has the largest reserves of natural gas in the world and is its leading exporter. In this regard, based on economic, geopolitical and other trends, Russian-Chinese cooperation in the gas sector, being a catalyst for the further development of the economies of both countries, plays an important role in their trade and economic interaction. In this paper, based on an analysis of trade and economic cooperation between Russia and China in the field of natural gas supplies, proposals are presented to eliminate the existing problems of economic interaction between the countries and form the logic of their further development in this sector.

The degree of development of a scientific problem

The study is based primarily on the results of the work of scientific and analytical centers in Russia and China, whose specialists, in particular, are engaged in a multifaceted study of bilateral trade and economic cooperation, including in the field of natural gas supplies. Among the relevant Russian organizations, one can distinguish: Analytical Center under the Government of the Russian Federation, Center for Energy Policy Studies of the National Research University Higher School of Economics, Institute for Energy Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of the Far East of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Energy Center of the Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO, etc.

In these scientific centers, V.A. Kulagin, T.A. Mitrova, A.A. Makarov, S.I. Melnikova, A.A. Galkina, E.N. Petelin, V.V. Ermakov, V.A. Matveev, S.V. Uyanaev, B.A. Akhmadeev, I.R. Gayazov, V.Ya. Portyakov, A.O. Vinogradov and others.

Among the Chinese institutions that pay attention to trade and economic cooperation between the Russian Federation and the PRC, we should highlight the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the Economic and Technical Academy under the China National Oil and Gas Corporation, the Energy Research Institute of the State Committee for Development and Reforms, the Research Center for Central Asia of the Shanghai University of Foreign Studies, Institute of Social Development and Public Policy of Fudan University, and other institutions.

Among the Chinese scientists who addressed the topic under consideration, it is worth noting Han Lihua, Gu Yishan, Bi Hune, Chen Weidong, He Rong, Gao Qian, Liao Weichang, Pan Changwei, Wang Haiyun, Feng Yujun, Li Xin, Xi Siuhua, Xu Ke, Shi Lei, Qi Wenhai, etc.

Works in this direction are mainly of a specialized nature and leave a number of issues related to the implementation of specific steps to accelerate cooperation in the energy sector insufficiently covered: this is the conjuncture of foreign trade in natural gas

Russia and the trend of its development, the growth in demand for energy resources and the energy security strategy of China, the improvement of trade and economic cooperation between the Russian Federation and China in the field of gas supplies.

The purpose of the study is to identify the features of the development of trade and economic cooperation between China and Russia in the field of natural gas supplies.

The implementation of the research goal predetermines the solution of the following tasks:

to determine the theoretical and methodological foundations necessary for the analysis of the development of Russian-Chinese relations in the field of natural gas supplies;

explore the features of the Russian gas industry;

characterize the main trade partners of Russia in the gas industry;

analyze the structure and development dynamics of China’s gas industry;

evaluate the trends in the development of trade and economic cooperation between the Russian Federation and China in the field of natural gas supplies;

determine the prospects for the development of Russian-Chinese trade and economic cooperation in the field of natural gas supplies.

Object and subject of research

The object of the study is the position of China and Russia in the international trade in natural gas.

The subject of the study is the development of Russian-Chinese trade and economic relations in the field of natural gas supplies from the point of view of analyzing the influence of internal and external factors on them.

Theoretical and methodological basis of the study

The fundamental concepts presented in the classical and modern works of domestic and foreign scientists, materials of international scientific conferences and symposiums, etc. were used as a theoretical basis for the study.

The research methodology is based on general scientific principles of understanding economic phenomena, including dialectical, concrete historical, systemic and other approaches, with the help of which the author examined the history of the development of the phenomenon under study, determining the influence of certain processes on it in aggregate and separately.

The scientific novelty of the work is seen in the consideration of the gas issue from the point of view of the current situation.

The most significant results of the research, with scientific novelty and obtained personally by the applicant, are as follows:

1. The advantages of trade and economic cooperation between the Russian Federation and China in the field of natural gas supplies, based on the conclusion

long-term contracts and represented by medium-term and long-term prospects for the development of bilateral relations between countries in the gas industry.

2. Based on the analysis of natural gas supplies to the EU and China using the IBM SPSS Statistics statistical program, the advantages of China as the most promising direction for the development of Russian gas exports in the medium and long term are revealed.

3. Based on the SWOT analysis of the joint Russian-Chinese project for gas supplies via the «eastern route», its advantages and disadvantages were identified and the impact of the project on the development of bilateral cooperation between the Russian Federation and China in the gas industry was determined.

4. The main expert points of view of Chinese specialists on the development of Chinese-Russian cooperation in the field of natural gas supplies with the introduction of new research results into scientific circulation are identified.

5. Proposals and recommendations have been developed for the adoption of a set of measures that will help create the basis for a strategic program for the long-term development of trade and economic relations between the Russian Federation and China in the field of natural gas supplies.

Theoretical and practical significance of the research

The theoretical significance of this study lies in the consideration of the theories described in different periods by foreign and Russian scientists with their subsequent application to analyze prospects and development options, as well as to identify the advantages of long-term trade relations in the direction of natural gas supply between the Russian Federation and China.

The practical significance of the study is presented in the form of the following results:

the performed analysis of statistical data makes it possible to form a picture of the medium-term and long-term prospects for the development of bilateral Russian-Chinese projects for the supply of natural gas;

the results obtained during the study show that the development of gas trade between the two countries gives a significant impetus to the development of Siberia and the Russian Far East, expands the structure of China’s energy imports and ensures its economic security.

The structure of the work: the work consists of an introduction, two chapters, a conclusion and a list of references. 

Заключение:

Energy cooperation between the two largest states of the modern world, the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation, including their oil and gas cooperation, is an important factor in strengthening regional and global security. Thanks largely to these countries, at the beginning of the 21st century, a civilizational, mutually beneficial way of redistributing energy resources between countries prevailed, which makes it possible to improve and make the Asian oil and gas supply system more reliable and accessible. Cooperation between China and Russia in the oil and gas sector is beneficial to both countries, it helps to strengthen long-term strategic partnership.

In the complex contradictory processes of international life, China seeks to obtain guarantees of hydrocarbons and the stability of trade relations in the field of oil equipment and petrochemistry from partner countries, among which the Russian Federation is the most reliable and promising. For Russia, China is a reliable and capacious market for oil and gas resources. China and the Russian Federation have a great national demand in the oil and gas sector. The oil and gas complex are a locomotive not only in the modern economy of the Russian Federation, but also stimulates the development and multilateral cooperation between the PRC and the Russian Federation in the Asia-Pacific region. In this process, the political and economic interests of both states intersect. The rich experience and lessons of oil and gas cooperation between China and the Russian Federation are in many ways instructive, they require a deeper scientific understanding.

On the one hand, Russia needs to refine and implement the already contracted projects, despite the current conditions. In business practice, reliability, reputation and fulfillment of obligations by partners are of great importance, therefore it is important for Russia not to break off relations that have been built for many decades.

On the other hand, it is necessary to assess and take into account the risks of reducing and stopping natural gas supplies to Europe. The released volumes of export supplies can be directed to the domestic market, as well as redirected from west to east.

It is necessary to form options for restructuring supplies to the east, to assess their volume and cost. Although China is the main potential buyer of Russian pipeline gas, disputes over the contract price may be a key point in negotiations with China.

To strengthen its position, Russia needs to look for new buyers of Russian natural gas and diversify supplies. An important area of diversification and increasing the flexibility of exports is the development of LNG technologies and the increase in its production, the development of gas infrastructure (LNG terminals, UGS facilities, gas pipelines) in the east of the country. In that number and amplification negotiation positions with China.

Фрагмент текста работы:

CHAPTER 1. FEATURES OF INTERACTION IN THE SPHERE OF NATURAL GAS SUPPLY

1.1. General state of the natural resources market

Economic theory divides natural resources into renewable and non-renewable . At the same time, he considers both groups of natural resources to be rare economic goods.

Due to the scarcity of natural resources, it is crucial that:

1. they cannot be produced or manufactured

2. they are not renewable

Both of the above properties are absolutely true for the so-called solid goods, which constitute the most important subgroup of non-renewable natural resources. These goods are characterized by the fact that they must be mined. For example, this category includes gold, oil, coal or natural gas. Soft goods, opposite the category of hard goods, can be produced, produced and renewed to a certain extent. This includes, for example, animal husbandry, food, agricultural and industrial crops or fishing. Thus, compared to soft goods, hard goods are characterized by their limited quantity [4].

For the reasons mentioned above, this paper will focus primarily on non-renewable natural resources, as they are rarer than renewable resources due to their properties and thus are more suitable for determining the impact of natural resources on economic growth [10].

A more complete definition of natural resources is offered by the World Trade Organization (hereinafter referred to as the WTO), which describes natural resources as a stock of materials found in the wild and not created by human activity. They are rare in terms of their limited quantity and economic use, both raw and after minimal processing [20].

The division of natural resources into soft and hard goods is also used by the United Nations (hereinafter UN).

Due to their properties, non-renewable natural resources form an important part of international trade, which is discussed in more detail in the next chapter. Its purpose is to indicate the place of natural resources in international trade, to find the leading exporters of natural resources, and then to present economic theories and selected studies on the problem of natural resources.

Chart 1 shows the consumption of selected natural resources since 1900. The data show that there was a sharp increase in their consumption in the second half of the 20th century, and this was true for all the goods surveyed. The foundations for such an increase in consumption were already laid in the first half of the 20th century.

The reason was the second industrial revolution, which increased the demand for the entire amount of production and therefore also for natural resources, which are an important contribution to production. Industrialization led to a further reduction in transaction costs. In addition, new mineral deposits were discovered. However, after that, the trade in natural resources declined for several decades. All agree that this decline was mainly driven by volatility in the prices of key commodities. While these were relatively short-term fluctuations overall, the effects on the real economy were significant, as evidenced by the situation in the 1970s that came to be known as the oil shocks [18].

After this period, significant growth again occurred, similar to that of the early second half of the 20th century. In the period leading up to the 2008 global economic crisis, trade in natural resources increased sixfold compared to 1955. In 2008, trade in natural resources reached $3.7 trillion. This represented more than 25% of the total international trade. In 2013, the share of trade in natural resources subsequently increased to 32%. Thus, almost a third of everything traded in the world economy is natural resources. The structure of trade in natural resources for 2013 is described in more detail in the following table, which shows that fossil fuels accounted for the largest share in the total volume of natural resources, i.e. oil, natural gas and coal. The second most important subcategory is agricultural products.